Heat pump skills competition puts UK warm homes ambition at risk, warns new report

• Report identifies 76,000 jobs in England with heat pump-relevant skills, highlighting potential for workforce transition into a growing sector
• Many of these roles are already in high demand or lack capacity to retrain, threatening the delivery of the government’s Warm Homes Plan
• Calls for targeted government action, including SME support for retraining and apprenticeships, a green heat campaign, and a heat pump skills passport

High competition for skilled workers in the UK’s heat pump sector threatens the delivery of the government’s Warm Homes Plan and the progress of one of the Modern Industrial Strategy’s frontier industries, according to a new report published today.

The report, Workforce planning for clean heat, produced by WPI Economics for the Aldersgate Group, The MCS Foundation, Phoenix Group, and Santander UK, highlights significant opportunities to expand the heat pump workforce. It identifies around 76,000 roles in England with relevant skillsets – such as plumbers, pipefitters, manufacturing engineers, and electricians – indicating strong potential to scale up capacity in this sector.

However, many of those employed in these identified jobs are already in high-demand occupations, work in small businesses or as sole traders with limited capacity to retrain, or are approaching retirement. Without targeted investment in training and reskilling, competition for skilled labour could hinder progress towards the government’s ambition to upgrade five million homes by 2030.

Rachel Solomon Williams, Executive Director at the Aldersgate Group: “Careful planning is needed to ensure that the workforce needed for housebuilding, energy efficiency and infrastructure avoids competing for similar occupations and skills. The acute shortage of skilled tradespeople is underlined by the fact that occupations accounting for 91% of the potential heat pump installation workforce appear on the Skilled Worker Visa Temporary Shortage List.” 

Previous estimates suggest the heat pump workforce needs to grow from 4,543 full-time roles in 2023 to 41,000 by 2028 and 122,000 by 2035 to meet the previous Government’s heat pump adoption target. Achieving this will require a major expansion of the workforce across the value chain, from manufacturing to installation, yet it remains unclear how these roles will be filled.

Another challenge highlighted is the low level of participation in heat pump-related further education and apprenticeships. Many colleges and training providers are not offering the most relevant programmes, such as the Low Carbon Heating Technician course or the environmental pathway within the Plumbing and Domestic Heating apprenticeship, due to limited employer demand.

Fiona Hyde, Head of Sustainability at Santander UK said: “In recent years, we have seen a positive shift in the transition to net zero from ambition to delivery. In order to support that shift and see material changes being made, we must have a workforce with the necessary skills to deliver those ambitions. The level of training and apprenticeships in the heat pump sector are currently sitting below what’s needed. The industry has a real opportunity to create good-quality jobs across the country, but government must act to ensure people can access them”.

Looking ahead to the government’s Warm Homes Plan, the report urges the government to take targeted action to strengthen the heat pump workforce. Recommendations include: strategic workforce planning with better data and clearer demand signals to anticipate training needs; support for existing workers to retrain with financial assistance and a heat pump skills passport; and measures to expand the pipeline of new workers, such as incentives for SMEs to offer apprenticeships and the launch of a national green heat careers campaign aimed at young people.

Bruno Gardner, Head of Climate Change and Nature at Phoenix Group, said: “The government is due to announce the Warm Homes Plan, which will be a critical policy package to further increase the demand for heat pumps across the country. To succeed, the plan must be complemented by measures – such as those recommended in this report – to help unlock barriers to upskilling existing workers and stimulate investment in training the next generation of workers. These actions will not only accelerate the transition to low-carbon heating but also drive economic growth by creating skilled jobs and strengthening regional economies”.

Dr Richard Hauxwell-Baldwin, Head of Research, Policy and Campaigns at The MCS Foundation, said: “There is a huge opportunity to provide well-paid, meaningful jobs across the country in the heat pump sector if we invest in training now. There are already tens of thousands of people with the skills we need to power the transition to clean heating, but to tap into that potential support is needed for SMEs to take on apprentices and cross-train workers. Providing that support and certainty to employers will be vital in delivering the Government’s Warm Homes Plan and achieving a carbon-free future for our homes.”

ENDS