Dimitri Zenghelis, Chief Economist at Cisco and the London School of Economics observed there is no distinction between a GIB and a national investment bank, except that “it would be against the public interest, not to mention inconsistent with the Government’s underlying policy, for an investment bank to be anything other than green.”
“But why focus on green anyway? Why aren’t we focused on jobs? Shouldn’t we be focusing on the economy?” In answer to his own questions, Mr Zenghelis argued that the economics of market failures tell us the best time to support green investment is now. “The economic outlook is pretty dire and we’re all facing a crisis of confidence. The result of this is that you actually get a cyclical self-imposed spiral in economic confidence.” Households and businesses are saving rather than investing which has stalled the economy and “we have record private financial net surpluses: £110billion in the 2010 in the UK. Even as a percentage of GDP, that’s a post war record.” That money could be put to work through the GIB, “ensuring that we can make better use of those record private savings and help crack the confidence cycle that we are stuck in at the moment in order to get private investment funding.”
A GIB would stimulate the economy by leveraging private finance with minimal demands on the public finances, thus driving resource efficient growth in areas ranging from water to transportation to high speed internet. The two crucial factors behind this scope for green investment are:
1) that it is public sector driven, not policy driven, and therefore “sheltered from the current economic headwinds” which feed the lack of confidence in future private markets;
2) that it is long term credible, because this is one of the fastest growing markets. “Investors know that there are huge opportunities if the world becomes carbon constrained”, and “a GIB can help stimulate demand by leveraging billions of pounds of additional private spending whilst offsetting contractory fiscal restructuring, by utilising the fact that these markets offer very viable long term returns.”
The GIB won’t crowd out alternative productive spending or raise resource cost. “When the economy is running at full pelt [this] is a genuine concern: if you want a green job you will displace a non-green job, if you want green investment you will somehow displace alternative productive private investment.” The economic problems today are based upon demand constraint, which is why “the restrictions on borrowing for the GIB until 2015, and then only if the public finances are in good shape, are precisely wrong.” If the Government waits until the public finances are in better shape, resource costs will have risen and the opportunity to lock into green infrastructure at the lowest possible cost whilst stimulating jobs and recovery will have been lost.
The GIB must be supported by green policies that ensure that the sector is competitive with conventional technologies, “otherwise the private sector has too strong an incentive to carry on business as usual in its same dirty old ways.” Green policies do not require substantial public spending and can in fact generate revenue for the public purse. “One of the ironies of this is that if the public sector gives confused or weak signals the cost of that investment, because of the lack of credibility, will only rise.” Equally this means that the public sector must take on some of the risk and thereby demonstrate genuine commitment to green investment.
“The economic logic is sound, the opportunities are huge and a GIB can promote a long term environment of growth and macro economic stabilisation.” |